TOURISM IN THE MEDITERRANEAN

Five African countries, five Asian countries and 11 European countries bordering the Mediterranean, an estimated 426 million people (1999) total population. Eight major cultural and linguistic systems, three great religions as diverse as the tiny island nation - state of Malta (360 km2) or the immense Algeria (3.6 million km2) and populations ranging from 380,000 to Malta to more than 67 million Egyptians meet on the shores of the Mediterranean. 

On a socio economic cultural Mediterranean area includes four major groups of countries - economically advanced and politically stable socio countries (democracies). These are the four member countries of the European Union (France, Italy, Spain and Greece) and the former colonies and the new states that are Cyprus, Malta, Israel (and Monaco!) - The second group includes the Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia .These countries have different political systems and often large natural resources, but they are faced with a socio-economic structural problems and / or policy as well as religious and / or ethnic tensions - the third group is represented by the single case of Turkey that offers features found in the previous two categories: development of Western-style chronic budget deficit, debt outdoor growing, an unstable political regime; -the fourth group includes the Adriatic coast of the Balkans with the Republic of Albania and the five countries from the breakup of the former Yugoslavia: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Slovenia and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) .ces countries have in common is breaking up with a former political and socio-economic order after a civil war and an external military intervention. Despite many differences in their style and in their degree of economic, social and political, the 21 countries of the Mediterranean area have very strong cultural ties. 

The Mediterranean was the cradle of Western civilization and some of the most ancient cultures of humanity grew on its banks (Arab, Byzantine, Carthaginian, Egyptian, Greek, Roman) origins .DES the Mediterranean was crossed to 'trade routes. In the eighteenth century changes in the geography of world trade and disruption of transportation technology have helped tilt the center of gravity of the world from the Mediterranean to the Atlantic Ocean. 

In 1971 the 21 countries bordering the Mediterranean already received 86 million tourists. These numbers were $ 125 million in 1985 to 200 million in 1990 and they certainly exceed the 250 million tourists today. In the early twenty-first century Mediterranean remains the world's leading tourist destination. It accounts for 40% of all international tourist arrivals and 30% of global tourism receipts .The Tourism accounts for 13% of exports from Mediterranean countries, 23% of the service sector and employs over 5 million people. 

The Mediterranean Tourism is highly concentrated in a few key sites around natural and cultural attractions. In the 21 countries cited coastal areas capture fifth international tourist arrivals (approximately 125 million foreign tourists), not including hikers, at least as many .In Greece 90% of Tourism is located in a coastal area .In Spain 76% of the tourist infrastructure is concentrated in coastal regions 5 out of 18 .This concentration of tourism will put pressure on coastal ecosystems, fragile by nature and it results in major pollution (chemical, but also visual and sound!), and by the proliferation of illegal construction practices, by the multiplication of conflicts over land use or water, etc ... 

In 2007 Mediterranean peripheries attracted 260 million international tourists, nearly 30% of world total (900 million), including 63 million for non-European countries (from Morocco to Turkey). They had only attracted 35 million international tourists in 2000 advantaged by their proximity to Europe's southern and eastern shores of the Mediterranean topped among the tourist regions of the world with its annual growth rate since 2000, according UNWTO (world Tourism Organization), on the 924 million tourist arrivals worldwide in 2008, Europe tops the list of countries visited, with nearly 500 million arrivals. This figure is more than double the goings recorded in Asia and the Pacific, second in this ranking. By analyzing the elements of the European pole position, we see the importance of the Mediterranean. Based on the selected markets by the META (Mediterranean Travel Association), this inland sea has attracted 300 million visitors in 2008. 

The results published or projected in early 2010, suggested a decrease of slightly more than 4.6% of international arrivals in the Mediterranean (30 steps), which therefore pass 300 million in 2008 to 285 million 2009 the decline was the largest since 2000 the market share of the world tourism Mediterranean waned 0.11% to in 2009 was 32.40%. The trend has been a decline in international arrivals in the Mediterranean in 2009, despite a fourth quarter much better than estimated in November, especially in the 11 Mediterranean countries of the European Union, in the northern region (7% or 15 million 'arrivals). Southern parts (=), East (+ 4.31%) and the Balkans (+ 0.58%) estimated they had three in 2009 and up 1.5 million additional international arrivals. The volume of activity is expected in sharp decline for 2009, without it being possible in February 2010 to produce realistic estimates. The strength of the Euro in 2009 and the succession of financial, economic and social crises that have characterized it, are primarily responsible for this significant decrease in activity. 

The year 2009 bears the greatest crisis in the Mediterranean area has been known for 10 years. However, the Mediterranean has custody in 2009 the leadership of world markets since the crisis hit worldwide. The non-Mediterranean Europe and the Americas have also recorded a decline in their market share of international arrivals. In contrast, Asia Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa recorded an increase. The market share of the Middle East Mediterranean not remained unchanged. Once again, it is the non-European markets which have allowed the Mediterranean to limit its decline from world market. At this rate, the South zones, East and Balkans will receive more international tourists that the northern zone at the end of the decade. 

International tourist arrivals to thirty Mediterranean marches rose 4.37% between 2009 and 2010 reveals the Meta Association (Mediterranean Travel Association) with 12.4 million people in 2010 received The increase is less than that of global tourist arrivals by 59.5 million more tourists (+ 6.77%). 

Mediterranean in 2011 has received more than 5.4 million additional international arrivals compared to fiscal 2010, 299.7 million arrivals. However this increase in 2011, estimated at + 1.12% is again far from the global increase (+ 3.93%), which helps to further reduce the overall market share of the Mediterranean, losing 0 77% to settle at 30.48%. However, it must take into account the impact of the Arab revolutions and the European crisis in 2011 to explain some of the weaker performance of the Mediterranean this year. Compared with 2000, the results in terms of international arrivals in 2011 are higher by 158.8% in the markets of the east bank (from Turkey to the Palestinian territories), 149.3% in the Balkans (non EU), 68.1% in the markets of the South Shore (from Mauritania to Egypt), and only 8.06% in the markets of the North Shore, from Portugal to Cyprus. Syrian catastrophe, directly threatens its immediate neighbors, particularly Lebanon. Turkey should continue its impressive growth, recording between 2000 and 2011 an Annual Growth Rate of 9.17% of its arrivals, 

Over the period 2000/2011, cumulative arrivals in the Mediterranean totaled 3,208,652,500 arrivals and the world 9,812,087,000, representing a combined market share of 32.70%, a ratio very close to one third of world arrivals. However, it should be noted that most of the increases in percentages should be put down to the markets of the southern and eastern Mediterranean and Balkan markets (non-EU). The potential of the area is therefore in these markets, not in European countries, more mature, which only record low levels accumulated during the period progressions (but strong growth in arrivals). It is possible that by 2020 the Mediterranean can stand up to large increases observed mainly in Asia Pacific, with a significant rise from the Balkans, such as from the south and east. In theory, 2012 should see the number of world arrivals exceed one billion and those of the Mediterranean finally cross the 300 million mark. 

  Despite twenty international summits in the rush for four years, and the results have all been reported as successful; the financial crisis in 2009 and imported ravaging the European Union, not slowing. Instead, new emergencies are emerging; Greece of course, the output of the euro zone is not excluded, but also in Spain, whose banks are threatened with bankruptcy, which in the game of dominoes could lead to other banks and other states in an early unwinding of sixty years of European construction. We're not there yet, but the ruin of small savers threat, lower wages and pensions as well as job losses. Of course, stimulus measures will be taken in the short term, trying to balance austerity with prodigality, much like carp were married rabbits. I bet that this strange coupling can always find a different solution, knowing that the saving federalism is, for now, out of reach.

In this context, the "shorter", "far less" "cheaper" will no doubt go on holiday in 2012 Europeans, focusing on domestic trips or for the wealthy, traveling in Europe close, continuing the movement already observed in 2011 Small consolation, the European currency is exchanged in June 2012 around 1.25 USD, draw on the Continent of international vacationers, often new tourism entrants from countries with high growth that will benefit, as a bonus, a consequent fall in prices. 

  In the markets of the Mediterranean South, transfer initiated by the Arab revolutions in 2011 in Tunisia and Egypt, is not yet complete. New governments democratically urns from work to reconcile minority in a difficult to get political majority rapidly developing new constitutions. Tourism is vital for these countries, contributing in 2011 to 14.30% in the Egyptian GDP and employing 3 million people and 13.9% directly or indirectly to the Tunisian GDP and nearly 500,000 direct and indirect jobs. It should be very careful in communicating any hostile declaration summer tourism in 2012 will be seen as a threat by Europeans frightened but tempted by prices falling sharply. Moroccan and Jordanian destinations are less subject to these constraints, but their situation does not mean easy. The Algeria announcement at the same time displayed a willingness to engage in tourism, which is not yet the new Libya. 

International tourist arrivals to thirty Mediterranean markets rose 4.37% between 2009 and 2010 reveals the association Meta (Mediterranean Travel Association) with 12.4 million people in 2010 received The increase is less than that of global tourist arrivals by 59.5 million more tourists (+ 6.77%). 

The Arab Spring has changed the summer 2011: Tunisia and Egypt, very popular with European tourists, were abandoned in favor of France, Spain or Greece. 

According to a survey by Travelzoo in early 2011, while 70% of respondents were planning a trip to the Middle East and North Africa before the Arab spring, 72% of them admit to being less willing to take vacation summer in this region. 

It is the north of the Mediterranean that took advantage of the situation. In head, France and Spain were the main destinations of substitution of these travelers. In February 2011, the clientele has jumped 20% in Spain mainly benefiting Canaries (thanks to the arrival in force of Ryanair) and Valencia. In this city tourists have increased 25% indicates the local tourist office. "We believe there is a direct effect of the Arab revolutions but also of the international crisis," says a local guide. Southern Europe is a palliative to the Maghreb countries for those seeking the sun. 

According to the "Vision 2020 UNWTO", 500 million are expected over the next decade in the Mediterranean on 1.6 billion international arrivals. Despite the energy crisis growth currently observed worldwide (5-6% per year) and regional (more than 10% per year over the southern and eastern shores of the Mediterranean) is likely to continue for some time. 

The "Blue Plan" and "The Economist Intelligence Unit" have masterminded several tourism development scenarios for the Mediterranean region by 2025 These estimates suggest that arrivals within 21 riparian countries could reach 379-578000000 tourists in 2025! 

The evolution of arrivals and tourism receipts in the Mediterranean countries, as well as the offer is accompanied by trends and decisive for the future of this sector. According to WTO these trends can be summarized as: 

-The Resistance of traditional seaside tourism, mostly to family and seasonality. 

-The Confirmation or the appearance of some destinations, particularly to cultural destinations: Italy, Greece, southern Morocco, Turkey, Egypt, mainly accessible by aérienne.Elles allow the combination of seaside tourism, sports activities and cultural practices. 

-the Importance and diversity of housing wealth .The number of hotel beds was 5.8 million in 1995 (5.4 million in 1990), representing 3 million rooms. As for the number of additional tourist beds it would be over 33 million where the importance of second homes, vacation tourism, campings- caravan sites, holiday villages, etc ... 

-The Persistence of "tourist empty" related to cyclical factors: Algeria, Libya, Syria, ... The region has strong potential susceptible to future development. 

-The Specificity tourism non-resident nationals of the Mediterranean countries, working in northern Europe and returning to regular home .This form of tourism represents more than 5 million arrivals in the Mediterranean countries. 

The emergence of the new tourism products and behaviors. Mediterranean regions benefit more than others from the vogue of cultural tourism, rural tourism, thalassotherapy, etc ... 

-L'explosion Of cruising, boating and water sports. 

-The Ease of access to Mediterranean destinations, a growing number of international arrivals by making airways. 

-L'affirmation Countries of southern Europe as emitters of Tourism; France and Italy and Spain have become important source countries for the benefit in the first place, the Mediterranean area. 

Scenarios Tourism Plan Bleu: The Mediterranean Tourism on the horizon 2010- 2025 

Specialists of the Blue Plan developed four models of evolution scenario of Mediterranean Tourism .This prospective study in 1995 yet still useful. 1 The baseline scenario worsened T2 - the countries of South and East are not always able to control their inflation and practice of successive devaluations; the northern population is stagnant, if not declining; the southern explodes, the migratory flows are amplified and are poorly controlled; unemployment affects all Mediterranean countries to the south and east it exceeds 20% of the workforce; the status of women is changing only slowly and declining in some countries; working time does not lessen and formulas of precarious work are spreading while a dual society settles; cyclical outbreaks of terrorism and the development of a serious crime; this is the time of "cocooning": we stay at home for economic and security reasons. 2 moderate trend scenario T3: The economic growth recovers in southern Europe with rates of around 2.5%, leading in part the Mediterranean economy. The growth rates of the countries of southern and eastern reach 4% unemployment does not exceed 10 to 12% in southern Europe and 15-20% in the countries of the south and east; the population of northern basin stagnant growth that substantially slows the south; the status of women is improving in the countries south and east; women take the lead in many businesses and play a role increasingly important in the holidays; speaks again of a company fun, people refuse restrictions; supremacy of tailor-made thanks to the computer; processes develop lasting peace in the Middle East; terrorism is contained, some social outbreaks remain; crime persists in urban areas and communities affected by mass tourism sectors; structuring working hours operates for longer holidays in the year and to a reduction of weekly working time; 3 the alternative scenario of cooperation A1: Sustainable Peace on the edge of the Mediterranean; a system of euro area moved around the Mediterranean; generalization of the work week to four days without much impact on direct and indirect labor income; strong support from north to south (more than 1.5% of the GDP of rich countries there would be dedicated, reinforcement of network cooperation, significant decrease in the unemployment rate: around 5% in the countries of the European Union and less than 15% in others; stabilizing populations around the Mediterranean and reducing fear of the immigration board, strong tendency towards equality of women and men in work and daily life, importance of clan solidarity : family, friendship, association, etc ...; attenuation of the power of large corporations to small businesses and local communities; 4 - Alternative Scenario A2 regional groupings: the population in the north and south of the basin increases significantly; reduction food or other addictions; economic health of developing countries to the east and south that would catch their late departure on vacation and use of free time, the sub-regional cooperation evolves into confederalism. 

In the early twenty-first century the Mediterranean remains the world's leading tourist destination with 40% of international tourist arrivals in the world and 30% of the revenue generated by international tourism. Tourism accounts for 13% of exports of Mediterranean products, 23% of service activities and employs over 5 million people. The cumulative numbers of tourist arrivals in the 21 countries of the Mediterranean basin increased from 86 million people in 1975 to $ 125 million in 1986 to over 200 million in 1990 to 250 million today. 2025 (see above) arrivals should be between 379 and 758 million tourists all countries ... 

However, the domination of the Mediterranean today competes with other regions (Pacific, Southeast Asia, ...). The gradual decline of the Mediterranean destination is related to several factors: - the emergence of new destinations, often exotic - the development of "alternative" tourism (ecotourism, cultural tourism, agritourism, ...) - the slow development, hesitant, and often uncoordinated new Mediterranean tourism products - too strong seasonality (40% of tourist activities are concentrated on the period June-September) - too many areas of sporadic and occasional conflicts in this part of world.